Has racing been completely shut down?

[CamKing]

Work of Los Alamos scientists suggests COVID-19 can turn really bad again much faster than it got better

Los Alamos scientists estimated how fast the curve is flattened in 51 countries. They determined that arbitrarily re-opening societies can allow COVID-19 to undo that progress much faster than it took to achieve it. Widespread testing would help to manage the difference.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/work-of-l ... =717806076

Stan

If the 3 antibody studies are correct, and the actual infection rate is 25-30 times higher then the confirmed case rate, you can throw that, and almost all projections out the window. What we need to do, is do many more antibody studies, in areas with much different infection rates, so we can validate the antibody tests, and get a much truer picture, of what we're dealing with.

[Stan Weiss]

No question we need way more testing. But there is also the question of just how accurate these tests are?

Stan

[SchmidtMotorWorks]

If you would like to see the break down here is a paper done on it in 2005.
http://orthomolecular.org/library/jom/2 ... 1-p021.pdf

Introduction
A close reading of medical peer-review
journals and government health statistics
shows that American medicine frequently
causes more harm than good.

Yet, life expectancy has nearly doubled as a result of American medicine.

[hoffman900]

If you would like to see the break down here is a paper done on it in 2005.
http://orthomolecular.org/library/jom/2 ... 1-p021.pdf

Introduction
A close reading of medical peer-review
journals and government health statistics
shows that American medicine frequently
causes more harm than good.

Yet, life expectancy has nearly doubled as a result of American medicine.

The Journal of Orthomolecular Medicine was started in 1967 to publish studies and promote megavitamin therapies. It is not an indexed biomedical journal and is hostile to evidence based medicine.

The Authors:
Gary Null, PhD: He is a HIV/AIDS denialist, anti-vaxxer, who rejects evidence based medicine and promotes questionable dietary supplements. He believes magnetism and vitamins can cure diseases and reverse aging.
Carolyn Dean, M.D., N.D: Shares similar views as Dr. Null.
Debora Rasio, M.D.: Again, similar views. Rejects evidence based medicine in promotes the holistic medicine as an alternative.
Martin Feldman, M.D: A well known HIV/AIDS dissident and believed in, again, megadoses of vitamins and holistic approach to medicine in direct conflict with evidence based medicine research.

Everyone:
Check. Your. Sources.

Since my freshman year of college, we would review a peer (which this is not, even though it looks like it) reviewed article weekly. I even do this for fun (never know what you're doing to learn). First step is google the Journal and then the authors.

Using the techniques as I pointed out in the PHR Header Dent test, this is a biased white paper masquerading as peer reviewed research. The authors have important titles some with "celebrity status", it's published in a "Journal", and has the look and feel of a rigorous peer reviewed piece. It is not and it is not science.

I'm getting over the "MSM" moniker. Just because something isn't "MSM" doesn't make it legit or good, and just makes you sound like a conspiracy news hipster ("but it's indie!"). Also, just because something is "MSM" doesn't make it good either. Again, check your sources. Keep an open mind. Do your homework.

Just because something sounds science-y, doesn't mean it is. Just because something looks like science, doesn't mean it is.

Work of Los Alamos scientists suggests COVID-19 can turn really bad again much faster than it got better

Los Alamos scientists estimated how fast the curve is flattened in 51 countries. They determined that arbitrarily re-opening societies can allow COVID-19 to undo that progress much faster than it took to achieve it. Widespread testing would help to manage the difference.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/work-of-l ... =717806076

Stan

If the 3 antibody studies are correct, and the actual infection rate is 25-30 times higher then the confirmed case rate, you can throw that, and almost all projections out the window. What we need to do, is do many more antibody studies, in areas with much different infection rates, so we can validate the antibody tests, and get a much truer picture, of what we're dealing with.

Mike, this is very true, and I always suspected (as have epidemiologists) that only 10% of the cases were being counted. However, where random sampling has occurred, we're looking at maybe 20% (estimate) of NYC's population has been exposed, or 2% of NY State's. If 2% exposure leads to 18k deaths, then what will that do when extrapolated out to the entire country? It's hard to say as modeling human behavior is hard. Would some of these Covid deaths happened on their own? Likely, but maybe later? Still plenty are being caught out who would have had no problem surviving otherwise (short of some other freak accident or medical condition, which you cannot project).

Regardless, tracking deaths vs. 5 year averages shows clear spikes well above those numbers. These would be all deaths, so the spikes are likely Covid deaths "in addition to to deaths regularly occurring".

Lastly, when we talk about the greying of this hobby, as backed up by anecdotal observations at the track, it is this industry that will be effected in terms of customers, participants, and spectators of the sport likely having higher instances of adverse outcomes... more say than amateur triathletes and their fans, who likely are in better shape, younger, and would have better outcomes.

This is where we're at: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/cor ... -of-death/

[Truckedup]

Out of curiosity, how many here have had statistics in college (even high school)? Just curious.

I also had courses in morbidity and mortality.....I sucked at statistics and had to get a girl to tutor me to pass the exams.......But that was 45 years ago..
Just like engines, there's many opinions that go against what seems like the truth....

[hoffman900]

Out of curiosity, how many here have had statistics in college (even high school)? Just curious.

I also had courses in morbidity and mortality.....I sucked at statistics and had to get a girl to tutor me to pass the exams.......But that was 45 years ago..
Just like engines, there's many opinions that go against what seems like the truth....

Right, but those are opinions.

I can't think of an industry where there is more psuedoscience than the motorsports realm (except maybe dietary supplements). A lot of this is because real development is secret and limited to OEMs and professional teams. Someone that sounds smart (and probably is, but maybe misguided) can post the results of a test or put something in print, and if no one questions it, it becomes "truth". However, on occasion, things are released. Honda's research site is a treasure trove.

For example, the Superflow manual for decades has talked about air slamming into the back of the valves. Does it? What was that information based off of? Was it just imagined or based on some real data? It's been published everywhere (magazines, forums, etc.), so it must be "true". Simulated and measured data show this is likely not happening how it's imagined.

We have read about exhaust ports going "supersonic" by some credible sources. Smart guys, but actually measuring by someone like Honda shows this is false, under certain conditions. Likely these smart guys prior were just imagining this phenomenon and using intuition. In Honda’s testing they found on a single cylinder engine (so think zoomie header on a multi cylinder engine) the exhaust throat goes supersonic. However, the changes to enlarge the throat on the multi-cylinder model didn't produce the same results. What happened? Well on an exhaust system with a shared collector (so any engine without zoomies) the residual pressure in the collector keeps the deltaP less so the throat never goes supersonic, thus necessitating a different approach (shrinking things). This gives credence to something Calvin Elston has observed, anecdotally, in his exhaust experience, "exhaust ports are too big and exhaust systems can be smaller than people with flowbenches think*". He may not know the exact reasons why, though he has shared what he is thinking is happening. That data from Honda is over 12 years old, yet people still to build things how they were.

* again, the system still needs to be design properly.

Looking at camshaft design. Harold Brookshire thought you open the valve aggressively and give it a soft landing. He is right in delaying IVO and this design helped him realize this. Very smart guy, but again, he was using intuition. Comp, through their Spintron experience has found this to be opposite of what you want to do. They turned some of those lobes backwards and they worked better. Comp's new "low shock" designs impart less energy in the front end and close the valve more aggressively (relative to the opening side). Their finding (and others can disagree, but they may not be able to share their evidence due to confidentiality agreements) is that if you don't excite the spring from the get go, you can control the valvetrain better through the rest of the lift curve.

Everyone needs to question everything and dig into the underlying biases (purposeful or accidental) of anything they read. This is dangerous as it can lead one to be prone to conspiracies, the trick is to balance this with knowledge of the physical world and how chemistry, physics, biology, etc. all interact with one another and having a good foundation in statistics so you can understand testing regimes, experimental design, and deconstruct results.

Remember two things: "assuming makes an ass out of you and me", and "correlation does not imply causation".

[Truckedup]

I do believe as individuals we need to decide for ourselves what is best provided you are not endangering others..
I have recently recovered from treatments for a very lethal disease. My immune system is pretty good but I'm taking no chances and keep away from people....So don't breathe on me.....lol

[falcongeorge]

Latest info from dr's on site and not from politicians.

Facts have no role to play in a post-modernist world...Whats interesting about all this is all these post-modernist agendas that come one on the heels of another are being pushed by eugenicists. Are they giant real-time sh*t tests?

Eugenicists?
You mean the Huxley's and WWF save the animals org?

Hehehehe, yea, those guys. But they didn't really mean it, they are just misunderstood. Bill Gates, Anthony "Big Tony" Fauci, Maurice Strong, Kissinger, Ol' Tommy Malthus and all those guys, they really just cared about the well-being of the human race, they are/were your friends, and Gate's vaccine will save you, on account of how his primary focus is the well-being of his fellow man and all that....

[econo racer]

I try to be optimistic but Ga, opened up and the cases have sky rocket. Not Good. Maybe a few weeks too early in some places.

[pcnsd]

Regarding the local tracks, yes/no depending on county of location. All that are open have modified their operational procedures to limit persons on site and maintain social distance regulation. One I know of, is open for practice only and are charging double the non-Covid price since they have to limit persons on site, but still cover operational cost.

Regarding the question of quality information, it has been obvious for over a decade, that beginning with paid TV (Cable networks) and finalizing with the rise of other information distribution forms (internet distribution), that all messaging is a targeted marketing ploy. They need you to watch/listen, to pay the bills and make money. They do that by hyperbole for the most part. Today's news distribution organizations are not about quality of information, they are about money. That is all fine with me, as long as we are teaching our children that everything they are exposed to is targeted to them to make a profit and push a narrative. I stopped watching most news except for a local TV station only in the morning, primarily for the weather. I am much happier for it and the world is less threatening. I looked for other sources. Linked below is the Covid-19 review from one of the best I have found. (justfacts.org). It updates as new information becomes available.
They do statistical analysis well and know the difference between association and causality. They also have published "Standards of credibility"

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_crucial_facts

[rebelyell]

Has racing been completely shot down? NO!

Saturday 02 MAY 2020: Dirt Super Late Models ran for $10,000 to WIN at Cherokee Speedway, Gaffney SC
http://www.cherokeespeedwaysc.com/

[swampbuggy]

Hey Hoffman 900, you stated that some have found that if the cam lobe ramp is not TOO aggressive on the opening ramp and does not excite the spring initially in the cycle, it is easier to get through the rest of the seat (back to the) seat cycle with better control of the valve train. After reading this it made me think about what i have heard about where NASCAR cup engines are with their valve spring seat pressure. If the seat pressure is close to what i have heard, it would stand to reason (common sense) that the opening ramp could not be super aggressive. You or anybody's thoughts, Camking Mark H.

[6.50camaro]

The track I run at in Texas just opened back up Sat. I can't leave Louisiana for till the 15th . All ready to go just waiting Dan

[GARY C]

If you would like to see the break down here is a paper done on it in 2005.
http://orthomolecular.org/library/jom/2 ... 1-p021.pdf

Introduction
A close reading of medical peer-review
journals and government health statistics
shows that American medicine frequently
causes more harm than good.

Yet, life expectancy has nearly doubled as a result of American medicine.

The Journal of Orthomolecular Medicine was started in 1967 to publish studies and promote megavitamin therapies. It is not an indexed biomedical journal and is hostile to evidence based medicine.

The Authors:
Gary Null, PhD: He is a HIV/AIDS denialist, anti-vaxxer, who rejects evidence based medicine and promotes questionable dietary supplements. He believes magnetism and vitamins can cure diseases and reverse aging.
Carolyn Dean, M.D., N.D: Shares similar views as Dr. Null.
Debora Rasio, M.D.: Again, similar views. Rejects evidence based medicine in promotes the holistic medicine as an alternative.
Martin Feldman, M.D: A well known HIV/AIDS dissident and believed in, again, megadoses of vitamins and holistic approach to medicine in direct conflict with evidence based medicine research.

Everyone:
Check. Your. Sources.

Since my freshman year of college, we would review a peer (which this is not, even though it looks like it) reviewed article weekly. I even do this for fun (never know what you're doing to learn). First step is google the Journal and then the authors.

Using the techniques as I pointed out in the PHR Header Dent test, this is a biased white paper masquerading as peer reviewed research. The authors have important titles some with "celebrity status", it's published in a "Journal", and has the look and feel of a rigorous peer reviewed piece. It is not and it is not science.

I'm getting over the "MSM" moniker. Just because something isn't "MSM" doesn't make it legit or good, and just makes you sound like a conspiracy news hipster ("but it's indie!"). Also, just because something is "MSM" doesn't make it good either. Again, check your sources. Keep an open mind. Do your homework.

Just because something sounds science-y, doesn't mean it is. Just because something looks like science, doesn't mean it is.

Work of Los Alamos scientists suggests COVID-19 can turn really bad again much faster than it got better

Los Alamos scientists estimated how fast the curve is flattened in 51 countries. They determined that arbitrarily re-opening societies can allow COVID-19 to undo that progress much faster than it took to achieve it. Widespread testing would help to manage the difference.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/work-of-l ... =717806076

Stan

If the 3 antibody studies are correct, and the actual infection rate is 25-30 times higher then the confirmed case rate, you can throw that, and almost all projections out the window. What we need to do, is do many more antibody studies, in areas with much different infection rates, so we can validate the antibody tests, and get a much truer picture, of what we're dealing with.

Mike, this is very true, and I always suspected (as have epidemiologists) that only 10% of the cases were being counted. However, where random sampling has occurred, we're looking at maybe 20% (estimate) of NYC's population has been exposed, or 2% of NY State's. If 2% exposure leads to 18k deaths, then what will that do when extrapolated out to the entire country? It's hard to say as modeling human behavior is hard. Would some of these Covid deaths happened on their own? Likely, but maybe later? Still plenty are being caught out who would have had no problem surviving otherwise (short of some other freak accident or medical condition, which you cannot project).

Regardless, tracking deaths vs. 5 year averages shows clear spikes well above those numbers. These would be all deaths, so the spikes are likely Covid deaths "in addition to to deaths regularly occurring".

Lastly, when we talk about the greying of this hobby, as backed up by anecdotal observations at the track, it is this industry that will be effected in terms of customers, participants, and spectators of the sport likely having higher instances of adverse outcomes... more say than amateur triathletes and their fans, who likely are in better shape, younger, and would have better outcomes.

This is where we're at: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/cor ... -of-death/

If modern day medicine is killing hundreds of thousands of people a year if not millions... And It Is!
Shouldn't someone in the field be rejecting it?

You keep talking about personal financial interest but your ok with a billion dollar medical industry killing millions of people...

[GARY C]

If you would like to see the break down here is a paper done on it in 2005.
http://orthomolecular.org/library/jom/2 ... 1-p021.pdf

Introduction
A close reading of medical peer-review
journals and government health statistics
shows that American medicine frequently
causes more harm than good.

Yet, life expectancy has nearly doubled as a result of American medicine.

Are you sure about that? 4000 years ago the average "life span" (not life expectancy) was 75 years, the "life span" data from last year was 68 ish years.
Yes, You can model "Life Expectancy" data to say anything you want but "life span" is what it is...

BTW, I challenge any one to find recent "Life Span" data... Not Life Expectancy.

As a side note it looks like we are going the other way even with life expectancey.

After 2010, US life expectancy plateaued and in 2014 it began reversing, dropping for three consecutive years -- from 78.9 years in 2014, to 78.6 in 2017. This is despite the US spending the most on health care per capita than any other country in the world. https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/health/u ... index.html