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So electric may just be a passing fad again

Anything to do with the electric or hybrid world

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gruntguru
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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm

:notworthy:

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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by Newold1 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:39 pm

I definitely do not believe electric vehicles are a passing fad. Processes that are more efficient than those currently in use tend to get expanded and improved and as long as they are more efficient in their improved state. these processes tend to stick around and don't become fads. Electric motors powering vehicles at this point and on into the foreseeable are the most efficient and hence will be around a long time until some other motive power replaces them. JMHO
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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by ZIGGY » Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:03 pm

I believe Shell Oil Products U.S. says fuel cells will be the ultimate solution, but being in the fuel business they would say that, wouldn't they.

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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gmrocket » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:51 pm

gruntguru wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm
:notworthy:
Thank you sir

I hope you learned something...I won't charge you for my time .

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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:18 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:51 pm
gruntguru wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm
:notworthy:
Thank you sir
I hope you learned something...I won't charge you for my time .
I learned a great deal. . . I'm glad you're not going to charge me.

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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Anyone here know how to extrapolate an exponential curve?

Image

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John Wallace
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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by John Wallace » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:09 pm

That chart didn't give good enough data, so I used wikipedia.
They had one for China and USA.
Comparison_PEV_sales_US_vs_China_2011_-_2017.png

With those data points, here is 2 equations, one for US trend and other for China trend.
China is way ahead of the US.

USA: x = 21243(e^(0.3511*(y-2010)))

China: x = 2209.2*(e^(0.8065*(y-2010)))

x= next data point (amount of cars)
y= Year input
e= euler's number

Whether the trend continues who knows?

:)
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gruntguru
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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:08 pm

Thanks John :D .
All trends continue - until they break!
Using your formulae I get the following
Year . . . . . Sales US . . . . Sales China
2020 . . . . . 700k . . . . . . . . . 7M
2030 . . . . . 23.8M . . . . . . 2,240,000M

Safe to say the trend will break before 2030 - they won't be buy 2 trillion cars a year in China.

As for electric being a passing fad - you don't need all this analysis of the data - one glance at the graph makes it obvious this "fad" has plenty of momentum in it yet!!

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John Wallace
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Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by John Wallace » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:12 am

True.
China has a population of 1.5 BILLION people, compared to 300 MILLION Americans.
So just 10% electric vehicles per capita of population in China would be 150 Million vehicles here, half the US population!

:shock:
John Wallace
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