We are currently running on the new domain and server: www.Speed-Talk.com

IMPORTANT: Update your bookmarks to https://www.speed-talk.com/forum/
(Right-click the URL and select "Bookmark this link")

So electric may just be a passing fad again

Anything to do with the electric or hybrid world

Moderator: Team

gruntguru
Pro
Pro
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:56 pm
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm

:notworthy:

Newold1
Guru
Guru
Posts: 1963
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:50 am
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by Newold1 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:39 pm

I definitely do not believe electric vehicles are a passing fad. Processes that are more efficient than those currently in use tend to get expanded and improved and as long as they are more efficient in their improved state. these processes tend to stick around and don't become fads. Electric motors powering vehicles at this point and on into the foreseeable are the most efficient and hence will be around a long time until some other motive power replaces them. JMHO
The Older I Get, The Dumber I Get :wink:

ZIGGY
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 1297
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 3:15 am
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by ZIGGY » Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:03 pm

I believe Shell Oil Products U.S. says fuel cells will be the ultimate solution, but being in the fuel business they would say that, wouldn't they.

gmrocket
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 5185
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2008 6:40 pm
Location: Grimsby Ontario

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gmrocket » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:51 pm

gruntguru wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm
:notworthy:
Thank you sir

I hope you learned something...I won't charge you for my time .

gruntguru
Pro
Pro
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:56 pm
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:18 pm

gmrocket wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:51 pm
gruntguru wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:23 pm
:notworthy:
Thank you sir
I hope you learned something...I won't charge you for my time .
I learned a great deal. . . I'm glad you're not going to charge me.

gruntguru
Pro
Pro
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:56 pm
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Anyone here know how to extrapolate an exponential curve?

Image

User avatar
John Wallace
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 1511
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:20 am
Location: was Central Illinois - Now in Sunny Florida!
Contact:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by John Wallace » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:09 pm

That chart didn't give good enough data, so I used wikipedia.
They had one for China and USA.
Comparison_PEV_sales_US_vs_China_2011_-_2017.png

With those data points, here is 2 equations, one for US trend and other for China trend.
China is way ahead of the US.

USA: x = 21243(e^(0.3511*(y-2010)))

China: x = 2209.2*(e^(0.8065*(y-2010)))

x= next data point (amount of cars)
y= Year input
e= euler's number

Whether the trend continues who knows?

:)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
John Wallace
Pontiac Power RULES !
www.wallaceracing.com

gruntguru
Pro
Pro
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:56 pm
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by gruntguru » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:08 pm

Thanks John :D .
All trends continue - until they break!
Using your formulae I get the following
Year . . . . . Sales US . . . . Sales China
2020 . . . . . 700k . . . . . . . . . 7M
2030 . . . . . 23.8M . . . . . . 2,240,000M

Safe to say the trend will break before 2030 - they won't be buy 2 trillion cars a year in China.

As for electric being a passing fad - you don't need all this analysis of the data - one glance at the graph makes it obvious this "fad" has plenty of momentum in it yet!!

User avatar
John Wallace
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 1511
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:20 am
Location: was Central Illinois - Now in Sunny Florida!
Contact:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by John Wallace » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:12 am

True.
China has a population of 1.5 BILLION people, compared to 300 MILLION Americans.
So just 10% electric vehicles per capita of population in China would be 150 Million vehicles here, half the US population!

:shock:
John Wallace
Pontiac Power RULES !
www.wallaceracing.com

shoedoos
Expert
Expert
Posts: 548
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2006 3:14 am
Location: New Zealand

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by shoedoos » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:31 pm


mk e
Guru
Guru
Posts: 5474
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 3:19 pm
Location: Elverson, PA

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by mk e » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:40 am

ZIGGY wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:03 pm
I believe Shell Oil Products U.S. says fuel cells will be the ultimate solution, but being in the fuel business they would say that, wouldn't they.
I used to work on Fuelcells including automotive applications including GM and Honda. That was 2000-2002, they were all the rage until you tried to build one that met the needs for a car then they cost in the $100-$250k range and had about $10k-$20k of platinum alone in them. It just made no sense....maybe for buses or similar but there really wasn't a path to an automotive solution.

All that work stopped around 2004 as the limits became better understood outside the research environment but I read recently they are reviving the program...I'm not sure what's changed but I've not heard of any new technology so I suspect the only change is enough people have forgotten it doesn't make sense so research $$ can be raised again :)
Mark
Mechanical Engineer

enigma57
Guru
Guru
Posts: 1568
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:59 pm
Location: Galt's Gulch

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by enigma57 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:39 pm

Image

Agree 100%, Mark. All other considerations aside, I believe the issue of electric (and other alternative means of propelling our personal vehicles) should be left to market factors and the motoring public to decide.

Keep government mandates and subsidies out of it. If electric (or other propulsion sources) prove both viable and affordable, there will be a market for them.

If not...... No biggie. We are sitting on enough fossil fuel to power such things for many hundreds of years, so there is plenty of time to sort this out.

As for humankind causing 'climate change'...... That's straight up globalist politcal BS and shouldn't be a part of the discussion in my view. :wink:

Just my dos centavos,

Harry

Kevin Johnson
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 8267
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:41 am
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by Kevin Johnson » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:05 am

mk e wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:40 am
ZIGGY wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:03 pm
I believe Shell Oil Products U.S. says fuel cells will be the ultimate solution, but being in the fuel business they would say that, wouldn't they.
I used to work on Fuelcells including automotive applications including GM and Honda. That was 2000-2002, they were all the rage until you tried to build one that met the needs for a car then they cost in the $100-$250k range and had about $10k-$20k of platinum alone in them. It just made no sense....maybe for buses or similar but there really wasn't a path to an automotive solution.

All that work stopped around 2004 as the limits became better understood outside the research environment but I read recently they are reviving the program...I'm not sure what's changed but I've not heard of any new technology so I suspect the only change is enough people have forgotten it doesn't make sense so research $$ can be raised again :)
https://www.understandingnano.com/fuel-cells.html

mk e
Guru
Guru
Posts: 5474
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 3:19 pm
Location: Elverson, PA

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by mk e » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:16 am

I'm not sure how much of that is actually new or commercially viable, the latter being what we struggled with the most. for sure platinum/palladium and nano particles where in play at that time.

To be reliable the systems got complex, which meant expensive....not an issue on a submarine or space system but a hug big deal for car or our primary focus of home and small commercial applications. Then stuff like membrane life was strongly linked to catalyst density so while we could reduce loading and achieve current density targets we couldn't achieve life targets.

Other things also came into play like CO levels near roads with heavy traffic dramatically reduced cell output....CO is a catalyst poison at normal cell operating temps. The project I worked on was a system that ran at 160C which is the magic temp that platinum begins to desorb CO. We made it work but were struggling with startup and shut down as any liquid water would damage the membrane and dramatically reduce life....and fuel cells make water, and there is also a lot of water in the air so it got complicated fast to try to take it out of the lab where purging with dry gas and capping it was easy.

There was also a dirty little secret that the systems we could build were no more fuel efficient then an IC engine spinning a generator. n paper they looked good but hydrogen doesn't come out the ground natural gas does so you need to made hydrogen. Our systems with onboard reformers (NG>H2) were about 29% efficient overall at peak operating conditions. Systems running bottled H2 were closer to 50%, but bottled H2 was made at about 70% so overall was 35% before you account for shipping the bottled H2. Not sure what you get if you ever you use solar to make the H2 but generally the electric you from the panels is about 3x the value as the chemical energy you'd have after 2 conversions.....so way better to just use the electric as electric than to make H2. A modern NG co-gen plant is usually just above 60% efficient, coal plant maybe 40-45%, diesel gen-set 35%, gasoline gen-set 25% for comparison then you lose 10-30% in the lines depending on distance....last I knew anyway.

Stuff may have changed but I'm pretty sure the fundamental issues with full cells have not been solved.
Mark
Mechanical Engineer

Kevin Johnson
HotPass
HotPass
Posts: 8267
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:41 am
Location:

Re: So electric may just be a passing fad again

Post by Kevin Johnson » Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:40 am

mk e wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:16 am
I'm not sure how much of that is actually new or commercially viable, the latter being what we struggled with the most. for sure platinum/palladium and nano particles where in play at that time.

To be reliable the systems got complex, which meant expensive....not an issue on a submarine or space system but a hug big deal for car or our primary focus of home and small commercial applications. Then stuff like membrane life was strongly linked to catalyst density so while we could reduce loading and achieve current density targets we couldn't achieve life targets.

Other things also came into play like CO levels near roads with heavy traffic dramatically reduced cell output....CO is a catalyst poison at normal cell operating temps. The project I worked on was a system that ran at 160C which is the magic temp that platinum begins to desorb CO. We made it work but were struggling with startup and shut down as any liquid water would damage the membrane and dramatically reduce life....and fuel cells make water, and there is also a lot of water in the air so it got complicated fast to try to take it out of the lab where purging with dry gas and capping it was easy.

There was also a dirty little secret that the systems we could build were no more fuel efficient then an IC engine spinning a generator. n paper they looked good but hydrogen doesn't come out the ground natural gas does so you need to made hydrogen. Our systems with onboard reformers (NG>H2) were about 29% efficient overall at peak operating conditions. Systems running bottled H2 were closer to 50%, but bottled H2 was made at about 70% so overall was 35% before you account for shipping the bottled H2. Not sure what you get if you ever you use solar to make the H2 but generally the electric you from the panels is about 3x the value as the chemical energy you'd have after 2 conversions.....so way better to just use the electric as electric than to make H2. A modern NG co-gen plant is usually just above 60% efficient, coal plant maybe 40-45%, diesel gen-set 35%, gasoline gen-set 25% for comparison then you lose 10-30% in the lines depending on distance....last I knew anyway.

Stuff may have changed but I'm pretty sure the fundamental issues with full cells have not been solved.
Yes, I see there is a large literature on the problems you mention which are conveniently left unaddressed in the link that I previously provided. The glass is half-full, I suppose. :wink:

https://www.plugpower.com/products/progen/ But the principals are still hoping to crack the passenger vehicle market.

Post Reply